During Franklin Roosevelt's first 100 days in office, congress granted every request the new president made. Barack Obama, despite enjoying a decisive majority in both houses of Congress, hasn't been so fortunate. His economic stimulus package failed to win a single Republican vote in the House, and conservative members of his own party are trying to block his ambitious plans to provide universal health care and curb global warming. What's more, Obama himself has alarmed supporters by compromising on key issues, and he has yet to flex his political muscle by mobilizing the tech-savvy network of grass-roots activists he assembled during last year's campaign. All of which raises the question: Is Obama raising false hopes? Or does he have what it takes to deliver real change?
(Photos: look back at Obama's presidential journey)
To assess Obama's performance during his first six months in office, we sat down in our New York offices with three of America's leading political observers. David Gergen, a senior political analyst for CNN and director of the Center for Public Leadership at the Harvard Kennedy School, served in the White Houses of Nixon, Ford, Reagan and Clinton. Paul Krugman, a New York Times columnist and professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton University, won the 2008 Nobel Prize in economics. Michael Moore is the Academy Award-winning director of Bowling for Columbine and Sicko; his new film, Capitalism: A Love Story, will premiere on October 2nd.
ECONOMIC RECOVERY
Biggest Victory Pulling the economy out of its nose dive. "Back in November, much of the world believed that we were on the precipice of a complete economic collapse," says Elizabeth Warren, the TARP watchdog. "Today, that's not the case."
Biggest Blunder Subsidized failing banks rather than nationalize them.
Real Change Passed largest middle-class tax cut in history. Negotiated $1 trillion bailout of developing economies at G-20 summit. Steered GM and Chrysler through bankruptcy. Reined in abusive credit card rate hikes. Outlined regulatory overhaul to curb hedge-fund excesses and create new agency to protect consumers.
Warning Signs Few stimulus funds spent to date; only 160,000 homeowners aided by $75 billion program to prevent foreclosures. Plan to rid banks of toxic assets — unveiled to great fanfare — still hasn't gotten off the ground.
Gutsiest Moment "I love those folks who helped get us in this mess and suddenly they say, 'This is Obama's economy,'" he said in July. "That's fine. Give it to me."
Needs to Stand Up To Wall Street. "Some of the terms of Obama's gifts to the banks were even worse than those of Bush — and we got robbed under Bush," says Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize-winning economist.
Experts Say "Let's not unfurl the 'Mission Accomplished' banner yet," says Warren. "We're not there." Adds Stiglitz: "We may have another very bad negative shock. It's a 50-50 chance that we will wind up in a real mess — a double downturn recession."
Grade B-
Health Care
Biggest Victory Extended health insurance to 4 million middle-class kids.
Biggest Blunder Framed universal health care as key to curbing costs — only to have the Congressional Budget Office counter that reform will balloon federal spending by $240billion.
Real Change Cut deals to slash drug prices for seniors by $80billion and hospital costs by $100billion. Earmarked $19billion in stimulus funds to computerize medical records and $21billion to extend insurance for 7million unemployed. Empowered FDA to regulate tobacco. Lifted Bush restrictions on stem-cell research; made morning-after pill available to 17-year-olds.
Warning Signs Deal to cut drug prices doesn't cover generics. Has waffled on public option to compete with private insurers. "If the Senate passes a bill without a public option, then it's a worthless bill," warns Howard Dean. "Just passing any bill will not be victory, and it's not reform."
Gutsiest Moment Targeting on-the-fence members of his own party with "Call Your Senators" ads demanding reform. Needs to Stand Up To AFSCME. The union is roadblocking the easiest way to fund reform: taxing employer-provided health benefits to the wealthiest Americans. Such a tax, according to the Congressional Budget Office, could generate as much as $500billion a year.
Experts Say "He thinks several chess moves ahead," says Theda Skocpol, a Harvard professor who studied the failure of Hillary Clinton's reform effort. "Obama has proved himself much more strategic than the Clintons were."
Grade B
Environment
Biggest Victory Secured EPA authority to limit climate-warming pollution under Clean Air Act.
Biggest Blunder Supported $3.4 billion in stimulus spending for pie-in-the-sky research into carbon capture and sequestration.
Real Change Protected 2 million acres of public land as wilderness, nearly surpassing Bush's eight-year total. Committed U.S. to treaty phasing out toxic mercury. Revoked Bush-era drilling permits near national parks. Amped up regulatory enforcement; directed billions in stimulus spending to jump-start green economy.
Warning Signs Endorsed House bill that betrays campaign promise by giving away carbon-pollution permits. Failed to persuade China and India to commit to global plan to cut greenhouse emissions in half by 2050. Approved logging in Tongass National Forest.
Gutsiest Moment Forced Detroit to boost fuel-economy standards by more than 10 miles per gallon by 2016 — the greenhouse equivalent of shutting down 194 coal-fired power plants.
Needs to Stand Up To Big Coal. Obama seems to buy the myth of "clean coal," and the EPA has rubber-stamped 42 permits for mountaintop-removal mining. "This form of mining is devastating Appalachia," says Robert F. Kennedy Jr. "And Obama is letting it happen."
Experts Say "They've done a phenomenal job of turning around Bush's record of delay and denial," says Carl Pope of the Sierra Club. "And they did so in the face of the additional challenges of the economic collapse. Obama's style is very different than Bill Clinton's — no muss, no fuss. In the long run it gives him more ability to get stuff done."
Grade A-
Education
Biggest Victory Devoted $115 billion of stimulus to modernize schools, preserve jobs for teachers and kick off the largest federal investment in higher ed since the GI Bill.
Biggest Blunder Didn't provide enough stimulus money to offset state cuts to education. "It made no sense to start new road programs when you're laying off teachers," says Nobel Prize economist Joseph Stiglitz.
Real Change Boosted federal grants and tax credits to help low-income kids attend college. Scrapping system that allows private lenders to profit from student loans, freeing up $77 billion to reinvest in education. Implemented $4 billion in grants for states that allow merit pay for teachers.
Warning Signs Emphasizing tougher exams for public schools — the same teach-to-the-test approach favored under No Child Left Behind. Spent billions bailing out schools without demanding fundamental reforms. "Stimulus funding has seemed to be dictated by the status quo," says Jeanne Allen, president of the Center for Education Reform.
Gutsiest Move Demanding that the teachers union open the door to merit-based pay: "It is time to start rewarding good teachers and stop making excuses for bad ones," Obama declared.
Needs to Stand Up To The Bush legacy. Obama is pushing for mandatory tests and more charter schools, rather than making public schools smaller and enabling teachers to provide more personalized instruction.
Experts Say "There seems to be the right orientation for reform, but not yet the resolve to push Congress to make it happen," says Allen.
Grade B
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