Published: 7:49PM BST 01 Oct 2009
Never have sport and politics been more firmly entwined than in this campaign, which accelerated into a political beauty contest as Friday's final vote approached.
Obama will become the first serving President to address the IOC when he takes part in Chicago's final presentation on Friday morning, but to win he will have to push back a decade of anti-American sentiment in the Olympic movement and overcome a fierce challenge from a similarly committed and charismatic political foe.
Lula, like Obama a leader from outside the ruling elite from which many IOC members are drawn, will argue that Rio presents the IOC with a historic choice, an opportunity to take the Games to South America for the first time and entrust them to an emerging nation.
The leaders of Spain and Japan, Prime Ministers José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero and Yukio Hatoyama respectively, have also arrived to lend their weight to their campaigns, and by the time the IOC members vote this evening they will have heard from two presidents, two prime ministers, a First Lady and the King of Spain. All are attempting to move votes in a race that even the most experienced of IOC watchers are struggling to call.
A month ago Rio looked to have overtaken Chicago with a sentimental appeal to the IOC's heart backed by solid government guarantees.
The Obama effect, and an increasingly bitter row between Rio and Madrid over critical comments from a Spanish bid member has appeared to derail that charge, and re-established Chicago's favouritism.
Crucially, all four cities have significant baggage that offers members a reason not to vote for them, and the winner will be the city that has most successfully explained away its flaws, or uses its political might to obscure them.
One IOC member said on Thursday night that as many as 20 per cent of the members will save their decision for after the final presentations, placing the emphasis even more squarely on the political muscle.
Obama's decision to risk his personal credibility in support of Chicago was the dominant theme on Thursday as IOC members were personally lobbied by the First Lady, Zapatero and Lula, who all visited the Marriott Hotel to try to secure support.
Obama's impending arrival loomed over them all. His presence is a priceless endorsement of the Olympic movement, but it is also being interpreted as an attempt to end the long-standing animus between a rump of the IOC membership and America.
The US has not staged a summer Games since Atlanta in 1996, the worst organised Games of recent times, and while the 2002 winter Games were in Salt Lake City, resentment still runs deep in some quarters.
Another bone of contention is the long-running dispute with the US Olympic Committee, which receives a disproportionate share of IOC income and is seen as over-mighty by many members.
Obama's presence will be interpreted as an apology for past offence, but it also presents the IOC with a rich dilemma. If the members reject his appeal the Olympic movement will have snubbed the most powerful man on Earth.
Say yes and they will face the accusation from Rio that for all the talk of Olympic values, the movement is unwilling to look beyond its traditional partners in the rich, developed world.
The choice was laid out plainly by Lula on Thursday morning, who even borrowed Obama's election-winning slogan to emphasise the confidence of Brazil's bid.
"For some countries the Games are just one more sports event," Lula said. "For us this is a unique opportunity to create a legacy for an immense number of young people [across South America] that will remain for decades to come.
"We want to say 'Yes we can'. It sounds very pretty coming from an American mouth but in Brazil we are accustomed to say we cannot, because we have considered ourselves second-rate citizens. Now we are looking outwards at the world and saying 'Yes we can, and we will!'"
The key to Rio's chances may lie in how they deal with the challenge of Madrid. With Tokyo expected to go out in the first round after a lacklustre, if unfailingly polite campaign, the battle for a place in the final two will be crucial.
The bickering between Rio and Madrid betrays the fact that they are fighting over some of the same votes.
Madrid can prosper if former IOC president Juan Antonio Samaranch Snr is still able to deliver a core of support and the Mediterranean nations row in behind their European partner.
Rio will be hoping to pull in the same voters, and whoever is the most successful is likely to challenge Chicago in the final round. Whichever city makes it will have to attract a broad base of support to compete with the American city after Obama appeals to the members to trust Chicago with the Games. "Yes we can," remains their most likely answer.
City election: how it works
After hearing 45-minute presentations from the four candidate cities, the IOC members will vote in rounds. The lowest-ranking city in each round will be ejected until one has an absolute majority.
As IOC members from a country running a bid are ineligible to vote until their city has been eliminated, there will be 97 votes at stake in the first round (the president, Jacques Rogge, doesn’t vote).
The first round will be the most precarious, with some members offering sympathy votes to outsiders, so all four cities are desperate to shore up their core vote.
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