Democrats poised to lose 20 to 50 seats in House: analysts
According to two key observers, Charlie Cook and 538.com's Nate Silver, Democrats are poised to lose "double-digit" seats in the House amid an increasingly bitter political climate.
Silver apparently stunned a liberal audience at the blogger convention Netroots Nation earlier this month, saying that the Republicans have a 25 to 33 percent chance of retaking the House. For both observers, such a happenstance seems unlikely, though first- and second-term Democrats appear particularly vulnerable.
Top political analyst Charlie Cook, in a special August 20 update to subscribers, wrote that “the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and congressional Democrats.”
"Many veteran congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats,” he wrote.
...Silver, a Democratic analyst whose uncannily accurate, stat-driven predictions have made his website 538.com a must read among political junkies, predicted that Republicans will win between 20 and 50 seats next year. He further alarmed an audience of progressive activists by arguing that the GOP has between a 25 and 33 percent chance of winning back control of the House.
“A lot of Democratic freshmen and sophomores will be running in a much tougher environment than in 2006 and 2008 and some will adapt to it, but a lot of others will inevitably freak out and end up losing,” Silver told POLITICO. “Complacency is another factor: We have volunteers who worked really hard in 2006 and in 2008 for Obama but it’s less compelling [for them] to preserve the majority.”
-John Byrne
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